WORKING PAPERS​

Multipliers from a major public sector relocation: The BBC moves to Salford (with M. Nathan, H. Overman, C. Riom and M. Sanchez-Vidal) [CEP Discussion Paper]

This paper considers the impact of a major public sector relocation: the British Broadcasting Corporation's partial move from London to Salford, Greater Manchester starting in 2011. We identify effects of the move, using synthetic control methods on workplace data aggregated to Local Authority level. Each BBC job increases employment in Salford's creative industries by 0.33 jobs on average, rising to 0.76 jobs by 2017. Offsetting changes in non-creative industries mean the move has no effect on total employment. We also consider effects on firm size and variation across different creative and non-creative industries. We find a positive effect on wages and no evidence of displacement.

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Highway traffic in Britain: The effect of road capacity changes (with M.A Garcia-López and R. Sanchis-Guarner H.)

[CEP Discussion Paper]

This paper provides a theoretical framework to study the relationship between expanded road capacity, traffic volumes and increased economic activity. We build on Anas (2024) to show that increased volumes do not necessarily lead to congestion if adjustments in economic factors, such as population or employment, are not substantial. We test our predictions obtaining key estimates with data from Great Britain between 2001 and 2020 and adopting a shift-share instrumental variable approach. We find that the elasticity of vehicle kilometres travelled to road capacity improvements is positive and statistically different from 1 across different specifications, while the elasticity of population and employment is positive but smaller than 1. In our framework this implies that the cost of driving does not increase above initial levels, resulting in higher consumer surplus through changes in travel demand and time savings.

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The next bus out. Urban public transportation and multidimensional poverty  (with A. Garcia-Suaza)

This paper seeks to establish the effect of implementing a BRT system on multidimensional poverty, explore how it affects labor market outcomes as the main mechanism, and understand the effects across the distribution of poverty. Taking Cartagena's new transport system as our setting, using data from the 2018 National Census, and a Doubly-Robust estimation, we found that connectivity to Transcaribe decreases the Multidimensional Poverty Index by 6.4 p.p. The effect is more pronounced for those in the most vulnerable groups: young and unskilled workers, and women. The estimates for labor market outcomes suggest that connectivity improved access to jobs that are a good match for the skills and qualifications of unemployed individuals.​

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PUBLICATIONS

Housing prices, buses, and trams in Medellín (Colombia) (With M.A García López)

Research in Transportation Economics, vol. 106, September 2024

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SELECTED WORK IN PROGRESS

​Bypassing pollution (with M.A Garcia-López and R. Sanchis-Guarner H.) 

Impact of local public transport schemes on economic growth (with G. Nunez-Chaim and H. Overman) 

Concentrate to adapt: crops, droughts and land productivity